How Have ARK’s Cryptocurrency Predictions Held Up?

youtube

Tokenized assets grew from $20 billion to $35 billion in six months. Roughly a third of Bitcoin's supply sits in quantum-exposed addresses. Applications on chain now earn twice the revenue of the blockchains they run on. David Puell and Lorenzo Valente deliver ARK Invest's mid-year review of the digital assets research from Big Ideas 2026: what tracked, what changed, and what we are watching into 2027. In this update: • The two stressors on Bitcoin in the first half: quantum computing concerns and MicroStrategy's STRETCH preferred product • Why we believe long-term holder supply hitting all-time highs is a bullish signal in a soft tape • ARK's on-chain floor models and the $48,000 to $52,000 downside range • Where we are in the four-year cycle and why the 2030 forecast is intact • ARK joining the Bitcoin Security Council • Tokenized assets at $35 billion, with treasuries at $15 billion and stocks as the fastest growing category • Robinhood's layer 2 on Arbitrum and what it means for traditional finance on chain • Why applications are capturing more on-chain revenue than blockchains, including Maximal Extractable Value (MEV) • Hyperliquid and Pump.fun revenue run rates Chapters 00:00:00 Bitcoin's first half: quantum and STRETCH 00:02:33 Is the Bitcoin forecast on track? 00:04:22 Tokenized assets grow to $35 billion 00:06:24 Treasuries, stocks, and what grows next 00:08:39 Hyperliquid and Pump.fun revenue 00:09:41 Why applications out-earn blockchains 00:11:16