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ARK has published its updated Tesla valuation. The previous model targeted 2029; this one runs to 2031.
Tasha Keeney and Daniel Maguire walk through what changed and why.
Robotaxi remains the dominant driver, at roughly 80% of enterprise value in 2031, down from about 90% in the prior model. The difference is Optimus. ARK’s base case now assumes roughly one million units deployed by 2031 earning robot-as-a-service revenue at software-as-a-service-like margins, a figure the team describes as conservative next to Elon Musk’s public comments about 100 million or one billion units in the same year.
Key Points:
- A new artificial intelligence infrastructure line in the model, where ARK estimates Tesla could cumulatively spend roughly $225 billion by 2031 across chips, the Terafab initiative, and related items, up from roughly $7 billion at the end of last year.
- Updated robotaxi pricing built on willingness-to-pay research across income deciles, against an average ride-hail price of $2.80 per mile today, with no surge pricing assumed.
- Why full self-driving subscription revenue is excluded from the model entirely, even with roughly 75% of North American deliveries attaching a subscription last quarter, a 20-point improvement, and an estimated annual recurring revenue approaching $1 billion.
- And the question the team gets asked most: a potential Tesla and SpaceX merger. Chips through Terafab, a combined ambition of 100 gigawatts of annual solar capacity, Starlink connectivity
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