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What does The Economist’s midterm tracker predict about the result of America’s congressional elections in November? The Economist’s data editor Dan Rosenheck joins Jason Palmer, co-host of The Intelligence podcast, to explain how the model has been built, including how polling errors, redistricting and candidate choices shape its forecast, and what could still change.
00:00 - Why are Democrats favoured in the midterms?
00:19 - What data powers the election model?
00:48 - How does the model handle polling errors and uncertainty
01:58 - Why the Democrats are favoured to flip the house
03:44 - Why the Senate is still a toss-up
05:29 - What could change the forecast before election day?
Listen to the full episode:
Virginia’s redistricting may be the nail in Republicans’ coffin:
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