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Wall Street is positioned for stagflation. Cathie Wood thinks they have it backwards.
In this month's "In The Know," ARK Invest CEO/CIO Cathie Wood lays out a framework where we believe inflation surprises lower (not higher), the dollar rallies (not crashes), the rolling recession ends, AI drives structural deflation the bond market is only starting to price, and a 30+ year base in US capital spending just broke to the upside.
Real-time inflation: ~1%. Yield curve: flattening despite oil up 57%. Housing: 1.4M buyers vs. 2.0M sellers, the widest gap on record. Capital expenditures ("CapEx"): through a 30-year ceiling. Productivity: running near 3%.
Six contrarian calls. One framework. Full breakdown in this episode.
Key Points:
00:00:00 A jobs report with something for everyone
00:01:30 The number we think Wall Street is missing
00:04:35 Why the deficit is shrinking (yes, really)
00:09:11 The dollar call almost nobody is making
00:14:20 Oil ripped 57%. The yield curve flattened. That's not normal.
00:22:46 Real-time inflation just broke 1%
00:28:30 The math the Federal Reserve has been waiting for
00:30:30 Did AI really kill entry-level jobs?
00:39:40 1.4 million buyers. 2 million sellers. Now what?
00:41:40 A 30-year ceiling just got blown through
00:46:26 What gold, oil, and Bitcoin are quietly telling us
00:51:00 The July 4 catalyst few are pricing
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